Hall of Famers, #1 Picks, and Jazz Draft Prospects
In today's post, we discuss historical number one picks, where hall of famers were drafted, and the first round prospects for the Utah Jazz. Do number one overall picks typically have Hall of Fame type careers? Were most hall of fame players drafted in the first five picks? Who should Jazz fans be watching for on draft night? Read on to find out.
How did most number one overall picks' careers turn out? How many of these players ended up being NBA All-Stars? How many were MVP's? How many lasted in the league? How many of their teams improved? Are more players like 2003's LeBron James or 2013's Anthony Bennett? We look through every number one pick from 1970 through 2017 to find the answers.
After excluding one player who chose to start his career in the ABA, we ended up analyzing a total of 47 players. Of these 47 players, 16 won Rookie of the Year (ROY), 32 were NBA All-Stars, and 9 were MVP's. In other words, of the 47 number one overall picks from 1970 to 2017, 36% won Rookie of the Year, 68% were NBA All-Stars, and 19% have been MVP. Some of these numbers may rise if say Kyrie Irving or Anthony Davis were to win MVP or Ben Simmons were to win ROY or become an all-star. The numbers don't seem too surprising, as other picks obviously do well too (e.g. Michael Jordan was picked 3rd and Kobe Bryant was picked 13th).
We also looked at how a team's record changes over the next ten years after they draft a number one pick. We averaged all of the teams' records to get a trend and eliminate the noise that is caused by all of the teams' lines. The 0 year represents the win percentage the year before the draft, while years 1 through 10 represent the next ten years for the franchise.
Beware, scouting reports do not always predict well.
Email us with any questions or to learn more about our research, amateursportsstatistics@gmail.com.
HALL OF FAME
Are most hall of fame players selected early in the draft? How scattered are the draft picks throughout the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame? We looked at former NBA players in the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame dating back to the late 1940's to answer these questions. We threw out draft picks that aren't even close to comparable to today's NBA draft (e.g. territorial picks and picks in the hundreds) and began to get a good look at the answers.
As is shown, most NBA players in the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame were taken in the top 10. We crunched some numbers and found that out of the 87 players we looked at, 73 were taken in picks 1-14 (30 in the top 2), 12 in 15-30, and 2 in 31-60. As one would probably expect, players are more likely to be hall of fame caliber players the higher they are drafted.
#1 PICKS
After excluding one player who chose to start his career in the ABA, we ended up analyzing a total of 47 players. Of these 47 players, 16 won Rookie of the Year (ROY), 32 were NBA All-Stars, and 9 were MVP's. In other words, of the 47 number one overall picks from 1970 to 2017, 36% won Rookie of the Year, 68% were NBA All-Stars, and 19% have been MVP. Some of these numbers may rise if say Kyrie Irving or Anthony Davis were to win MVP or Ben Simmons were to win ROY or become an all-star. The numbers don't seem too surprising, as other picks obviously do well too (e.g. Michael Jordan was picked 3rd and Kobe Bryant was picked 13th).
We also looked at how a team's record changes over the next ten years after they draft a number one pick. We averaged all of the teams' records to get a trend and eliminate the noise that is caused by all of the teams' lines. The 0 year represents the win percentage the year before the draft, while years 1 through 10 represent the next ten years for the franchise.
Teams tend to improve dramatically after they receive a number one pick and their success begins to falter as that player gets older, probably in their early thirties. A lot of these players have left their rookie team by this time as well. As most number one picks only stay with their rookie team for about 66% of their career.
UTAH JAZZ DRAFT PROSPECTS
Wondering who the Jazz are going to draft tomorrow night? We checked out 11 different mock drafts*, so that you know who to watch for tomorrow night. Here are the prospects that the experts have the Jazz taking. Click on their names for links to their Sports Illustrated scouting reports.
Beware, scouting reports do not always predict well.
Email us with any questions or to learn more about our research, amateursportsstatistics@gmail.com.
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