NBA Finals: Keys to Success - Follow-Up

In the last post, we discussed key predictors for the Warrior and the Cavaliers.  In this post, we look back at these predictors and see how accurate they were in the series.  Read on to find out.

Last week we stated that in 16 of their 17 games, the Warriors lost every time they assisted on less than 60% of their made field goals and lost the turnover battle.  When they assisted on 60% or more of their made field goals and/or won the turnover battle, they won.  In 16 of their 18 games, the Cavaliers had lost every time they made less than one free throw per five field goal attempts, or averaged less than 0.2 free throw per field goal attempt.  We weren't sure how these predictors would fair in the Finals.

The NBA Finals is over and the Warriors swept the Cavaliers 4 - 0 (despite being out-rebounded three out of four times), so let's see how accurate the predictors were in the Finals.  [For some select statistics (such as free throws, rebounds, 3's, etc.) generalized over the Finals, click here.]  We'll go through game by game.

Game 1

Warriors 124 - Cavaliers 114

Warriors

Assist Percentage: 67.4%     Turnover Margin: -4 (4 less than the Cavs)

Cavaliers

FT/FGA: 0.162

Prediction: Warriors     Actual: Warriors

Game 2

Warriors 122 - Cavaliers 103

Warriors

Assist Percentage: 59.6%     Turnover Margin: +1

Cavaliers

FT/FGA: 0.222

Prediction: ???     Actual: Warriors

The Warriors assist percentage was only 59.6%, but we figure that's practically 60%.  Statistics are not a black and white game.  Even though both teams can hit their marks to win, one team has to win and the other still has to lose.  This game makes us wonder if the Cavaliers have to hit their mark AND stop the Warriors from hitting their mark in order to win.  As opposed to the Warriors just having to hit their mark and not needing the Cavaliers to fall short.  Another explanation may be that this game was a fluke or our predictors are just inaccurate and unreliable.

Game 3

Warriors 110 - Cavaliers 102

Warriors

Assist Percentage: 64.3%     Turnover Margin: -3

Cavaliers

FT/FGA: 0.141

Prediction: Warriors     Actual: Warriors

Game 4

Warriors 108 - Cavaliers 85

Warriors

Assist Percentage: 64.1%     Turnover Margin: -1

Cavaliers

FT/FGA: 0.195

Prediction: Warriors     Actual: Warriors

Again, 0.195 seems to be close to 0.2 and there is always a gray area.  However, as we said before, it seems that the Cavaliers need to stop the Warriors from hitting their marks in order to win.

Overall, we believe that the predictors do seem to be accurate.  In statistics, we always say that correlation does not imply causation.  In other words, while these predictors seem to be correlated to victory for their respective teams, that doesn't necessarily mean that they cause them to win.  However, they might cause them, we just can't be 100% certain.  The thoughts behind these predictors do seem to make sense.

When the Warriors have a high assist percentage and win the turnover battle, they are sharing the ball effectively, not recklessly, typically causing open looks.  When the Cavaliers are making a high number of free throws, they are usually driving to the basket and getting foul calls.  Stating the case that the Cavaliers need to get to the free throw line (and make their free throws) to win, might encourage fans who believe that the LeBron James and the Cavaliers have been robbed in the series by the officials (not taking a stance on this here).

We believe that the predictors we found do seem to be accurate.  The predictors make sense with how each of the teams play.  Games two and four lead us to believe that it may be more important for the Cavaliers to stop the Warriors from reaching their marks than for the Warriors to stop the Cavaliers.  However, we cannot be 100% certain about that or that these predictors even cause them to win.  They do seem to fit the teams well and have proven to be fairly accurate.  The Warriors need to move the ball effectively and the Cavaliers need to drive and get to the line, that's how they win.