BYU Basketball: A Four Factors Analysis

In this post we analyze BYU Men's Basketball's most recent season and view their historical trends through the lens of Dean Oliver's "Four Factors of Basketball Success."  We will also view the historical trends for UVU Men's Basketball through the same lens.

Four Factors of Basketball Success

Dean Oliver uses an analytical approach to break down the game of basketball.  After thorough research, Oliver concluded that offense is 40% shooting (Effective Field Goal Percentage, eFG%), 25% turnovers (TOV%), 20% rebounding (ORB%), and 15% free throws (FT/FGA).  A team's defense can then be measured by how their opponent fares in these same statistical categories.  The statistics that were just mentioned are calculated as follows:

• eFG%: (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA
• TOV%: TOV / (FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV), basically TOV/PACE
• ORB%: ORB / (ORB + Opp DRB)
• FT/FGA: FT / FGA

Dean Oliver is currently the Vice President of Data Science at TruMedia Networks, Inc. and has had stints with the Seattle Supersonics, Denver Nuggets, Sacramento Kings, and ESPN.

BYU Offense

Now that we have some context, let's see how BYU has done as of late, we'll start with their offense.

In this last season, BYU's percentiles were as follows: eFG%: 72nd, TOV%: 95th, ORB%: 10th, and FT/FGA: 96th.  To summarize, BYU did pretty well with shooting, really well with limiting turnovers and getting to the free throw line, and absolutely terrible at getting offensive rebounds.  Being in the 72nd percentile, there is room to improve in their shooting and since that is 40% of offense, any increase could make a huge difference.  Also, even though rebounding is only 20% of offense, being in the 10th percentile is simply abysmal, getting extra possessions will absolutely help BYU win more games.

Now, let's take a look at BYU's defense.

BYU Defense

In this last season, BYU's percentiles for defense were as follows: eFG%: 53rd, TOV%: 35th, ORB%: 64th, and FT/FGA: 23rd.  To summarize, BYU did fairly well rebounding, were respectable limiting good shots, and did not do well forcing turnovers and limiting free throws.  Our recommendations would be to find ways to force worse shots and then either force more turnovers or find ways to limit free throw attempts.

Coach Mark Pope

Since Dave Rose is retired and Mark Pope is in as head coach, let's take a brief look at how Coach Pope did at Utah Valley University (2015-2019).





During Coach Pope's time at UVU (starting in the 2015-2016 season), they shot the ball well and got to the free throw line often.  They were inconsistent in their offensive rebounding and were very turnover prone.  On defense, they did well to limit good shots, offensive rebounds, and free throws, but they did not force very many turnovers.

Moving forward with BYU Basketball, we hope that Coach Pope can bring the same offensive and defensive strengths from his time at UVU, as well as help BYU to limit and force turnovers.

BYU Percentiles

Season	eFG%	TOV%	ORB%	FT/FGA	DEF eFG%	DEF TOV%	DEF ORB%	DEF FT/FGA
2018-2019	72.40%	94.60%	9.70%	96.30%	53.30%	35.00%	64.10%	22.80%
2017-2018	83.10%	69.30%	6.30%	89.70%	48.10%	67.60%	93.10%	95.40%
2016-2017	52.10%	51.00%	47.60%	94.60%	83.40%	11.70%	87.50%	90.80%
2015-2016	86.60%	90.00%	61.30%	31.80%	76.50%	50.70%	88.80%	79.10%
2014-2015	91.10%	88.80%	75.90%	97.40%	54.40%	32.40%	77.70%	33.80%
2013-2014	53.90%	95.40%	80.50%	88.80%	59.90%	22.90%	81.10%	66.80%
2012-2013	71.30%	94.20%	59.70%	62.90%	63.50%	40.90%	67.80%	46.70%
2011-2012	81.90%	73.70%	30.10%	56.10%	75.40%	81.00%	78.30%	78.90%
2010-2011	80.80%	99.50%	33.50%	80.20%	83.40%	58.00%	87.30%	83.70%
2009-2010	97.30%	95.60%	32.50%	88.60%	83.70%	82.20%	91.90%	66.30%

UVU Percentiles

Season	eFG	TOV	ORB	FT/FGA	DEF eFG	DEF TOV	DEF ORB	DEF FT/FGA
2018-2019	95.70%	17.10%	44.20%	95.20%	78.50%	18.50%	78.90%	76.90%
2017-2018	91.40%	20.90%	80.00%	87.40%	93.70%	34.30%	78.30%	95.00%
2016-2017	52.10%	12.30%	8.90%	72.20%	91.40%	46.70%	91.40%	72.80%
2015-2016	43.40%	44.30%	6.90%	40.00%	58.00%	27.70%	54.60%	57.10%
2014-2015	10.30%	20.10%	28.70%	25.20%	54.70%	29.20%	73.90%	52.40%
2013-2014	47.70%	62.30%	21.40%	64.00%	64.30%	14.90%	77.40%	94.60%
2012-2013	71.30%	66.10%	6.10%	23.20%	41.40%	23.80%	52.20%	94.10%
2011-2012	25.70%	83.30%	71.30%	47.40%	80.40%	12.00%	63.20%	88.60%
2010-2011	61.80%	57.10%	55.40%	99.70%	79.90%	12.80%	92.40%	84.30%
2009-2010	21.30%	37.20%	12.00%	64.00%	46.80%	56.50%	88.10%	41.10%