We Have Overtime!: NCAA Football Overtimes Analysis
Why do college football teams almost always elect to start overtime on defense? The answer seems obvious, but is the advantage real? How often does BYU, Utah, and Utah State go into overtime? How often do they win in overtime? We found the answers, read on to find out....
I've watched a lot of college football in my lifetime (way more than my family would like to admit), a lot of these games have gone into overtime, but I don't think I have ever seen a team elect to start overtime on offense. Starting on defense makes sense to me, you know how much the opposing team has scored, so you know exactly how many points your team needs to score to win or force another overtime. I decided to research just how effective this strategy has been for teams. I gathered from every FBS overtime game that has taken place in the past five years and I discovered some things.
Over the last five years, data has shown that once a game is in overtime, the probabilities of going into a further overtime are as shown below.
A game in overtime has a 40% chance of going into double overtime and an almost 17% chance extending into a third overtime.
BYU and Utah State have both won 50% of their overtime games (out of 4 and 6 games respectively), while Utah has won 55% of theirs (it's impossible to win 50% of eleven games). BYU has won 67% of the three games they've started on defense (again impossible, win 50% of three games), Utah has won 75% of their four, and Utah State has won 50% of their two. So, although there aren't enough games to be sure, the games do seem to reflect the slight advantage.
I've watched a lot of college football in my lifetime (way more than my family would like to admit), a lot of these games have gone into overtime, but I don't think I have ever seen a team elect to start overtime on offense. Starting on defense makes sense to me, you know how much the opposing team has scored, so you know exactly how many points your team needs to score to win or force another overtime. I decided to research just how effective this strategy has been for teams. I gathered from every FBS overtime game that has taken place in the past five years and I discovered some things.
Overtime Facts
In the past five years, there have been 181 NCAA FBS football games that have gone into overtime. Of these 181 games, 108 have ended after 1 overtime, 43 after 2 overtimes, and so on as can be seen in the graph below.
A game in overtime has a 40% chance of going into double overtime and an almost 17% chance extending into a third overtime.
Defense First Advantage
These statistics are interesting and add some useful insight, but let's get down to our research question. What is the probability that a team wins if they choose to start overtime on defense? Over the past 5 years, 181 games have gone into overtime, 93 of them ended with the starting defender winning, which is about 51%. So, is there a significant advantage? A 95% confidence interval confirms that there is. Is the advantage a big one? Probably not. However, if I"m trying to win a football game, I'll take any advantage, especially if the game is in overtime. Below is a graph showing the defense first strategy's win percentage depending on how many overtimes the game lasts (e.g. if the game ends after one overtime, the team that started on defense has a 46% chance to win, if the game lasts two overtimes, then the team that started on defense has a 51% chance to win, etc.).BYU, Utah, and Utah State
Lastly, I looked at BYU, Utah, and Utah State in overtime games over the last ten years. I found that even though Utah hasn't gone into overtime since 2015, they have gone into overtime more times than BYU and Utah State have combined. As the graph shows, Utah has gone into overtime 11 times (3 double overtimes), Utah 6 times (2 double overtimes), and BYU 4 times (2 double overtimes). What does this mean? Do they typically have closer games? Good question, maybe we'll have to look into that question another day. However, the statistic is definitely interesting!
BYU and Utah State have both won 50% of their overtime games (out of 4 and 6 games respectively), while Utah has won 55% of theirs (it's impossible to win 50% of eleven games). BYU has won 67% of the three games they've started on defense (again impossible, win 50% of three games), Utah has won 75% of their four, and Utah State has won 50% of their two. So, although there aren't enough games to be sure, the games do seem to reflect the slight advantage.
Team
|
Overall
|
Defense First
|
BYU
|
50% (4)
|
67% (3)
|
Utah
|
55% (11)
|
75% (4)
|
Utah State
|
50% (6)
|
50% (2)
|
Conclusion
In conclusion, there does seem to be a small advantage as 51% of teams who start on defense, win. Also, as a random note, Utah plays in a lot of overtime games, at least relative to BYU and Utah State.
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