NBA Finals: Seed History and Keys to Success

How often have we seen a four seed vs a two seed in the NBA Finals?  What key factors predict a victory for the Golden State Warriors?  What key factors predict a victory for the Cleveland Cavaliers?  Read on to find out.



The Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers are facing off in the NBA Finals for the fourth consecutive year.  It’s obvious that there is no love lost between the teams and the Finals may turn out to be more exciting than many of us anticipated.  The Warriors are the two seed from the West and the Cavaliers are the four seed from the East.  A lot of experts anticipated this series at the beginning of the season, but seeing Cleveland and Golden State face off as a four seed and a two seed seemed so unlikely.  However, any two seed-four seed matchup seems unlikely.  So, we decided to do some digging and see just how rare this seeding matchup is.  We looked back at every NBA Finals matchup, dating from 1950 through 2017.  1950 is the first year that the NBA existed, following the merger between the Basketball Association of America (BAA) and the National Basketball League (NBL).

SEED HISTORY

There have only been 12 NBA Finals that did not feature a one seed.  Only seven teams seeded fourth or lower have ever made it to the NBA Finals (shown below).  The lowest seed that has ever played in the Finals was the eighth seeded 1999 New York Knicks who lost to the first seeded San Antonio Spurs.  Only once in history has there been a four seed vs two seed matchup, in 2006 the fourth seeded Dallas Mavericks lost to the second seeded Miami Heat (led by none other than Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O'Neal).  A four seed has met a one seed twice, both matchups being the Boston Celtics vs. the Los Angeles Lakers (Boston was the fourth seed both times, winning in 1969 and losing in 2010).  Of the seven times that a fourth seed or lower has played, they have only won twice (Boston as mentioned before and the sixth seeded Houston Rockets over the first seeded Orlando Magic in 1995.

Season	Winner	Winner Seed	Loser	Loser Seed
2010	Los Angeles Lakers	1	Boston Celtics	4
2006	Miami Heat	2	Dallas Mavericks	4
1999	San Antonio Spurs	1	New York Knicks	8
1995	Houston Rockets	6	Orlando Magic	1
1981	Boston Celtics	1	Houston Rockets	6
1978	Washington Bullets	3	Seattle SuperSonics	4
1969	Boston Celtics	4	Los Angeles Lakers	1

A team seeded lower than three has not won the NBA Finals since 1995, history doesn’t exactly favor the Cavaliers.  However, none of those low seeded teams had what the Cavaliers have, LeBron James.  We’ve done a little research and found some numbers that might prove interesting in this series.  We’ll leave you with these keys to success for both teams.

KEYS TO SUCCESS

Throughout the playoffs, the Warriors have lost games when they assist on less than 60% of their made baskets and lose the turnover battle.  When they can avoid this scenario and assist on at least 60% of their made baskets and/or win the turnover battle, they win!  The combination of these two statistics have accurately predicted 16/17 of their playoff games, 17/18 if game one of the Finals is included.  The only game the predictor missed was one loss to New Orleans.  Check the data for yourself here.

Throughout the playoffs, the Cavaliers have lost games when they average less than one free throw per five field goal attempts, or 0.2 free throws per field goal attempt.  They have had to get to the free throw line in order to win.  This statistic accurately predicted 16/18 of their playoff games, 17/19 if game one of the Finals is included.  The only games the predictor missed are two wins vs Toronto.  Check the data for yourself here.

Graphs for these predictors can be seen here.  The predictors aren't 100%, but they're still impressively accurate.

We tested these predictors for the regular season, but they weren’t nearly as accurate (accurately predicted 55% of Cleveland’s games and 68% of Golden State’s games).  However, they have proven to be very accurate in the playoffs.  The difference in predictability makes sense as both teams seem to be playing much differently since the playoffs have begun.  The playoffs don't give us a lot of games to predict from, but there's a definite trend.  We encourage you to keep an eye on these predictors and see how well they do for the rest of the series!

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*All data used is taken from www.basketball-reference.com.