UCF and the Playoff Teams: A Breakdown and History

First, we discuss UCF and the college football teams comparatively.  Second, we discuss Alabama and Clemson. Third, we discuss UCF and the college football playoff teams' success by coach.

UCF and the Playoffs

We find it very interesting to see the patterns of win percentage over the years, as some teams seem to have a sort of pattern. For instance, Alabama with their peaks and valleys from 1997 through 2006 and Oklahoma with their small valleys every four or five years. UCF had been steadily rising in its peaks and valleys before their winless season in 2015. They then hired Scott Frost and had their dramatic rise that led to the controversial 2018 playoff snub. According to their record alone, they should have been in the playoffs, but that isn't the only factor in playoff criteria.

All of the 2018 College Football Playoff teams had similar strength of schedules last year. UCF's strength of schedule wasn't even close to the teams that got in. We don't know if they would have been competitive against the layoffs teams or not, we will never know. They proved in their New Year's Six bowl game that they were very good, but we didn't see many tests like that during the regular season. We're not sure we saw any at all. So, what we're about to say is no knock against UCF's talent, heart, or coaching. If they want to be in the playoffs, they need to increase their strength of schedule. This is much easier said than done as their conference makes this very difficult to do (possibly why Scott Frost left for greener pastures). The only real solution that we can see in the near future is for UCF to schedule more difficult opponents in non-conference games. With this as a goal, would it be wise for UCF to consider joining another conference if one was looking to expand?

Let's see an easier picture of just how low UCF's strength of schedule...let's compare it to the #4 seeded Alabama's.

Alabama in crimson and UCF in gold.

This really depicts the flaring difference between a perennial powerhouse and a team that has been awful up until present day. Were they good laster year, sure, but they need a better test to prove that before the playoffs.

Alabama and Clemson

Alabama in crimson and Clemson in orange.

Clemson and Alabama have been battling in the playoffs or even the nation championship since 2015. Let's take a look at their history. Clemson started to come on the scene in 2012, but they were overshadowed by Florida State until Clemson went to the national championship game in their 2015 season. They've been around the top of the college football world ever since. Alabama has been on and off the top of the college football world for years now. However, since Nick Saban's second season in 2008, they've pretty well been on top of the college football world.

Alabama in crimson and Clemson in orange.

Alabama and Clemson have been neck and neck since 2015. However, Clemson's strength of schedule wasn't quite on the same level until 2016. Obviously this doesn't mean that Clemson wasn't as good as Alabama, it just means that they weren't playing as difficult of opponents. Clemson's strength of schedule has skyrocketed since 2012. Alabama saw a similar spike just after 2007.

Coach Effect

UCF

Obviously, it's too bad for UCF that Scott Frost left to become the head coach of Nebraska, but can you blame him for the opportunity of a storied, Power 5 school? As we've seen it may be harder than expected with Nebraska now 0-2 after a loss to Troy today, but maybe once he gets his recruits there he will have a similar impact to what he had at UCF. He played the hardest schedule in recent years for UCF and had the best record as well.

Alabama

The Nick Saban effect is real. Nick Saban arrived in 2007 and didn't have the best first year, but it wasn't terrible either. 2007 was the last of three years that Alabama forfeited their wins. In 2008, they really started to gain momentum and they haven't looked back since. One thing that stands out to me is the fact that their schedule has just gotten harder over the years, yet they continue to dominate. Alabama is undeniably at the top of the college football world.

Let's take a quick detour and see when those wins were forfeited and if they had much of a recruiting/morale effect.

Alabama forfeited those wins just before the arrival of Nick Saban and in his first year. They didn't seem to hold Saban back as his reign of college football was just beginning.

Georgia

Georgia is on the rise and their success is no joke, they are getting better and their opponents are getting better. Can they continue this successful streak? They were good underneath Mark Richt, but can Kirby Smart continue this improvement? Can Smart follow in the footsteps of his mentor (Nick Saban) and grow a continuously dominant team?

Oklahoma

Oklahoma seems to stay fairly constant, no matter their strength of schedule. It helps to have had an all time great as a coach for so long. Not much to say here since Stoops has been the head coach for so long. We're excited to wait and see if Lincoln Riley can keep up the success.

Clemson

Dabo Swinney had a similar effect on Clemson that Nick Saban had on Alabama. Dabo Swinney arrived in 2008 and had a tougher time his first three years, low win percentages on a low schedule strength. However, maybe chalk it up to getting his own recruits, because in 2011 they began to take off and their strength of schedule followed. They are now on or near the top of the college football world.

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